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@Philadelphia

友情相助？人性光辉？你是听人民日报评论员说的吧？

cosmoyx(My way)
事发之时Warren Buffett 有12%的Soloman Brothers股份，也是董事会成员。当时财政部取消了Soloman的标购国债的资格，而且在调查以前的违规并要严惩，基本上Soloman是死路一条。

Warren Buffett 不出面，自己的投资将化为泡影，那对当时的他是很大一笔资产了，也就是“死马当活马医“。当然Soloman很大程度上是靠Warren Buffett 求情才活了下来，这里面还有没有其他猫腻谁也不知道了，也许几十年后又有人爆料也未知（别忘了Warren Buffett 本人脉络广泛，老爹以前还是国会议员）。就这样，都一直等到几年后（1997），才被Travelers Group接手，算是解套。从那以后，Warren Buffett再不碰投资银行。这次的GS也是因为条件太优厚了，但他还是没要Common Shares。

我是从不迷信什么偶像的，想一想：连伟大领袖毛主席都泡妞成癖！
(#909@52)
Last Updated: 2008-10-1
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • What Goldman Sachs' stock price do you expect in three years (considering all the factors): 1) $0-$1; 2) $30-60; 3) $60-90; 4) $90-120; 5) $120-200; 6) >$200 -cosmoyx(My way); 2008-9-25 (#700@52)
    • I vote for "3) $60-90". -cosmoyx(My way); 2008-9-29 (#865@52)
      • 纯属猜测？ -specialday(Joyce); 2008-9-29 (#867@52)
        • ：）based on my "model" with assumptions that GS' profit margin and financial leverage decrease. Cow ba? -cosmoyx(My way); 2008-9-29 (#869@52)
      • 这位 MY WAY 同学太COW了，神啊！佩服一把！ -wanglaoba(胃口倍好，身体倍棒); 2008-11-12 (#1412@52)
    • I bet it's >118 -appleclassical(自然醒); 2008-9-30 {42} (#872@52)
      Based on my idol's investment decision :)
      • 你偶像以前还买过American Airline和 Saloman Brothers，哈哈。 -cosmoyx(My way); 2008-9-30 (#880@52)
        • Saloman Brothers, 那是友情相助, 更显出我偶像人性的光辉~ -appleclassical(自然醒); 2008-9-30 (#886@52)
          • 友情相助？人性光辉？你是听人民日报评论员说的吧？ -cosmoyx(My way); 2008-10-1 {678} (#909@52)
            事发之时Warren Buffett 有12%的Soloman Brothers股份，也是董事会成员。当时财政部取消了Soloman的标购国债的资格，而且在调查以前的违规并要严惩，基本上Soloman是死路一条。

            Warren Buffett 不出面，自己的投资将化为泡影，那对当时的他是很大一笔资产了，也就是“死马当活马医“。当然Soloman很大程度上是靠Warren Buffett 求情才活了下来，这里面还有没有其他猫腻谁也不知道了，也许几十年后又有人爆料也未知（别忘了Warren Buffett 本人脉络广泛，老爹以前还是国会议员）。就这样，都一直等到几年后（1997），才被Travelers Group接手，算是解套。从那以后，Warren Buffett再不碰投资银行。这次的GS也是因为条件太优厚了，但他还是没要Common Shares。

            我是从不迷信什么偶像的，想一想：连伟大领袖毛主席都泡妞成癖！
            • 我说的是1987年的时候............今天他又在GE投了$3billion啊 -appleclassical(自然醒); 2008-10-1 {85} (#910@52)
              BTW,我有很多偶像,你要表现好了,我也封你为其中之一...但是我从没崇拜过那个"伟大领袖"哦
              • $3 bln preferred shares, not common share. -cosmoyx(My way); 2008-10-2 (#923@52)
    • Once FASB157 is removed, it will soar to "infinity, and, beyond" :) -hakama(Ippon); 2008-9-30 (#888@52)
    • I think it won't move much either way in the shorter term, with the volatility at over 100%, it's a perfect candidate for selling condors. -lachom(明天又是一天); 2008-9-30 (#889@52)
    • In a three-year horizon, I vote 5) $120-200. (70% confidence level) In a 5-year horizon, I vote6) >$200. (100% confidence level) -purelakewater(Lake); 2008-9-30 {771} (#892@52)
      Several thoughts: 1. WB's warrants have exercise price of $115 and expires in 5 years. 2. The financial industry now undergoes a tremendous wave of consolidation. Already, Bear Stern + WaMu-->JPM, MER+countrywide-->BAC, Wachovia-->Citi. This trend will continue. Survivors will become bigger and stronger. Industry structure will reduce competition hence results in higher margins. Believe GS will survive and thrive.
      3. Deleverage definitely will have negative impact on the bottom line in good years (but protective in rainy days). However, as long as the world economy is growing, business activities will grow in size and volume. When the next cycle comes (bold prediction: economy will recover in 2010 and peak in 2013-2015), GS stock will make new record highs.
      • haha, where did that 70% come from? -cosmoyx(My way); 2008-10-1 {512} (#908@52)
        I agree with you that things will be better in 5 years although the next 2-3 years is a little bit tricky.

        My thoughts about the downside:
        1. how big pie GS could take away from the demise of Lehman/Bear? GS is already strong at trading, perhaps fixed-income is an area it could get a piece.
        2. due to the deleveraging and slowdown of the economy in the next two years or more, GS' revenue and profitability could shrink dramatically.

        Anyway, let's go and see. Great year to be in the capital market.
        • Hehe, interesting comments. -purelakewater(Lake); 2008-10-1 {930} (#911@52)
          Bullish and highly-respective on GS, though a competitor of the firm I work for.
          1. Don't worry its market share at all. GS is world-wide #1 name in I Banking. Very very strong in M&A advisory. Top tier 1 player in capital underwriting, particularly on the equity side. (no very top because its size is relatively small compared with C and JPM etc.) When markets in good time, GS is of no worry in deal pipeline.

          2. On the firm level, deleverage does not affect revenue, as leverage only magnifies the swing effect of revenue on net income. From a trading perspective, it does. But trading on its own account is only a small portion of GS's business. For economy, when it slows, it hurts top line hence affecting bottom line as well. But in 2 years, good time will be back.

          3. Right now is the worst situation since Great Depression and GS today closed at over $130. What if the storms calm down and economy recovers?
          • :). I just look forward for around two years. -cosmoyx(My way); 2008-10-1 {428} (#915@52)
            What if the whole pool of the deal market shrinks, say, by 30%? In addition, others in the league table especially Citi / JPM / BoA / UBS / DB take more shares away from GS/MS due to their deal-financing capability?

            What if GS' shares being further diluted due to future equity offering?

            During 2006-2007, GS' stock price was trading in the highest level of the past decade. Could we see that again before 2011? I doubt.
    • 这个问题根本无法回答。别说三年，就是三天后什么样，都没人知道。 -lehmanbrother(雷曼兄弟); 2008-10-1 (#917@52)
    • 我实在忍不住自己的小小虚荣心，恬不知耻的佩服自己一把：我靠，我怎么就这么牛呢！-- GS周五收$88.80。看来这金融论坛是块宝地，风水好！多半是我五行缺什么这儿就有什么。 -cosmoyx(万事俱备，只欠老婆); 2008-10-11 {37} (#1141@52)
      这数字88.80怎么感觉像是中国人做的庄？
      • 我这刚开始自吹自擂，它怎么就冲到了$111呢？太不给面子了。看来这凡人一发狂，上帝就叫他灭亡！ -cosmoyx(万事俱备，只欠老婆); 2008-10-13 (#1170@52)
        • 过$120了！快把我钉在历史的耻辱柱上了。 -cosmoyx(万事俱备，只欠老婆); 2008-10-14 (#1177@52)
          • 所以,不要把迷信权威当成可耻的事情! -appleclassical(自然醒); 2008-10-14 (#1178@52)

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