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不太同意通货膨胀那段。起码不是7000亿国债就是印7000亿美元钞票那么简单。这要看7000亿卖给谁?这是问题的关键。国债的发行对象,不外两个渠道:

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛1,面向公众发行。理论上讲,这样做绝对不会引起恶性通货膨胀。因为发行国债的所得是通过减少目前的购买力来获得的。社会总流通手段不会增加,流通中的货币没增加,怎么会有大幅度的通货膨胀呢?当然,短期内发行巨额国债,必然引起利率的增加,这可能会导致一点物价上升,应当是在可控范围内的。

2,面象国外发行。面向国外发行,必然带来巨大的外汇结余,通过贸易,政府可以用这些外汇购买外国的产品,使国内市场上的商品总量增加,这样,即便市场上多了7000亿的货币,但同时也会多了7000亿的商品,所以,商品价格的变化是不会太大的,也不会引起通货膨胀。没错吧?

当然,第三点是在假定汇率不变的基础上的,实际上,如果短期内发行7000亿外国债券,汇率不可能不变。除非是卖给中国那样死守固定汇率的国家。那样的的话,美国就是活生生把这7000亿美元的通货膨胀硬是出口给了中国。因为美国没有这7000亿的对应商品,它还硬要发7000亿的货币,又不能在国内买,买了就会通货膨胀,所以只好去中国买。结果是,平白无故地中国就要给美国7000亿的东西,而得到的就是美国政府签发的一张白条!我不是开玩笑,美中两国政府这么干,不是头一次了,也不是一天两天了。坑的谁?还用问吗?

发行巨额外债的另一个好处是,可以迫使外国调高本币利率,如果不调高,你就是进口美国的通货膨胀。但你如果调高了,这又刺激了美国的出口,无疑会增强美国的就业形势,客观上必然延缓衰退的到来。当然,外国政府可以不买美国的帐,比如德国财长就公开唱反调。但不时每个国家都是德国,日本敢吗?中国干吗?英国敢吗?新加坡,南朝鲜,台湾,加拿大等等这些国家,他们敢吗?

所以,这7000个亿,远没有一看就吓一跳那么简单。要知道,今日世界的国际货币体系和贸易制度都是美国建立的,美国得益于这个制度也不是什么见不得人的事,他没有不在继续利用这个制度的道理。更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
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  • crisis 随想
    • "而美国经济又是消费主导,一旦consumer 弱了demand, 麻烦就长久了" - It may not be a bad thing. It is coming now. Consumer behavior and credit behavior will change.
      Couple of days ago I talked to a folk about why oil price will fall down. His point is that OPEC also scares the change of consumer behavior, i.e., people will consider fuel efficiency as one of key factor when they buy a new car. If demand fades out ,OPEC country will be in trouble in the long run.
    • 这才是真人!这是我在Rolia所有坛子里迄今为止看到的有关金融话题的水平最高的一贴。Structured Group?
      A couple of thoughts regarding the bailout:

      1). the $700 bln will be paid by installments ($250/100/350 bln). How much existing "toxic assets" on major financial institutions' B/S now? how much more assets we may expect to be downgraded to be "toxic" in the coming future?

      2). the answer to the first question depends largely on the housing market, as you elaborated. Maybe more accurately, depends on the Default rate and Delinquent rate. Here comes three factors for the Default rate: housing price, unemployment rate, and the housing inventory absorption rate. To make things even more complicated, we don't know how many % of the mortgage payers are for pure investing/speculating, and how many % for self-occupancy.

      3). above are just RMBS (maybe some CMBS). How much other ABS, underlying assets of credit card receivables/car loans/student loans, are under the danger of downgrading? How serious it is about that pool of "toxic assets candidates"?

      Any comment?
      • 他要是能在今年6月份前随想出来的那才是有水平. 现在也就是个马后炮. 你的问题现在世界上没有人能回答因为连制造者自己都不知道.
        • 1.人家是“随想”,随便写写;不是“猜想”“预测”。就算人家有本事在半年前预测到这些,也不会跑到这么个公众论坛里来发表吧? 2. 能语言流畅,思路清晰地把这一大堆事写出来,就是水平了。给一篇得A的文章挑刺要比自己写一篇得B的文章容易得多。
          要不我Challenge 你一把:你也写一篇看看?

          我问的问题应该还是有人知道的,只是一者不会愿意公布出来,二者数据本身也在变化中。
      • I got some free time to answer your question
        本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛1, Nobody knows exactly how much "toxic waste" there are on the Bank's balance sheet among US Banks or around the world. Some banks are not forth coming on their exposure, others are financed through off-balance sheet funding vehicle, therefore, the the exact number is a mystery. However, according to Mr. Bill Gross, another $500billion seems to be need to calm the market.

        2, In terms of US housing market. There are two things need to be considered. a) the Asset value keeps falling. When the asset value reaches the bottom, that's when we will start seeing the recovery of the debt/credit related financial crisis. b)stress tests on existing mortgage debts, two street conventions are based on UBS and JP Morgan methodology, Intex and Markit seems to be the only two data source provide necessary data for analysis. However, due to complexity of the underlying asset classes are not simply subprime, alt-a or prime mortgages, but also include RMBS, CMBS, CDO, CDO Squares. Information related to complex ABS are difficult to help analyst to figure out whether these are subprime, alt-a or prime related products. Different assumptions are utilized for delinquency rate, and default rate. However, honestly speaking, when Merrill sold their "toxic waste" for 22cents on a dollar back in Aug, everyone was shocked on the street. Fortunately, no such fire sales were followed by other banks.

        3, Seems like the trouble related to the Mortgage related ABS has spilled over into other asset classes. GM selling GMAC, big three suspended their leasing options for new vehicles. The ripple effect is yet to be seen on the main street.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
        • 说的有点道道. 不过Merrill 22cent 贱卖其实已经给了一个市场价. 现在别的银行想卖都卖不到这给价. 就等着BAIL OUT. Merrill 的CEO极其聪明, 在后来及时的将自己卖给BAC, 要不然就死的更难看.
          • 是被指婚的. 反弹也不用等了,直接在万点以下见了
            • 还允许卖空吗?
              • 反向ETF
        • Thanks for your time.
          1.Those originators and mortgage services should have those data. So, for Fed and those major originators, they may at least have a ballpark figure of the defaulting & potentially defaulting data.

          2. In terms of stress test, I am quite interested in how bad the situation would be if: a). the housing price falls another 10-15%; b). unemployment rate increases another 2%.

          3. I think I was wrong in terms of other ABS. As ppl default car lease and credit card before defaulting their house mortgages, maybe that field is not as detrimental as the MBS does.

          4. A good news is: some lenders are renegotiating the mortgage agreements with the borrower to avoid delinquency. Though we don't know how positive impact this move could be, it's benefiting the problem-solving.
      • 过奖了。这儿牛人多多,我也就随便想想,随便写写。不是structure group, 在investment banking. As to your post, good thoughts and good questions.
        本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Like Zuluking mentioned, no one know the exact size of the taxic waste. Two reasons: 1. The complexitiy of the securities. For many MBS, CMBS, CDOs, they were sliced and re-packaged N times that nobobody knows exactly what's the underlying assets are, let alone the intrinsic values. 2. The disfunctioning markets makes valution extremely difficult if not impossible.

        Two methods of valuation: intrisic value approach that discounts future cash flows to the present value. For a MBS, for instance, as you said, future payments are unpredictable because of the unknown default rates and delinuent rates. Those inputs are contingent on the economy - on a macro level, the GDP growth rate, inflation and unemployment rates; on a micro level, how consumer feels of their pockets, therefore the willingness to spend, as well as how corporates feels of the profit prospects in intermediary or long term, hence the willingness to invest/expand. In short, in a world filled with high uncertainty, the best maybe creat senarioes to get a sense of how bad it could be.
        Even the discount rate is changing dramaticlly because of the dramatic change of availability of liquidity and the degree of risk aversion of the market. Therefore, intrisic valuation even using complex simulation models do not work well in current situation. Garbage in, garbage out.

        The market relative valuation works only if market is functioning. In fact, asset pricing is a pivatal role of capital markets. but now markets totally disfuncting - no liquidity, no flow, no trade, no financing. Everything is still, no trading to give a fair market value of assets. What a terrible situation it is. JP Morgan acquired WaMu. The latter has $176 billion exposure to mortgage markets, including more risky ones with payment deferral options . JPM write them down 31 billlion. This latest transaction will provide a benchmark to gauge the value of similar assets. JPM may derived the 20% mark down based on current available information. But things will and are changing. Maybe 40% write down is appropriate 3 months from now.

        Back to your topic, is $700 billion enough? Some say the first tranche may be $350 bn that's far from enough. Like you and Zuluking said, if mortgage trouble spill over to other security classes via the deterioration of economy, this could be only the begining of the end.

        we are in an uncharted era, everthing is experimental in nature. Let the smart guys like Paulson and Benanke to cope with the tough situation. We just carefully observe, think and learn.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
        • Well said. It's indeed a great timing for us to experience and witness this scenario. Years later, I could use this line to pick up my girl -- "you know, actually I did that when the market collapsed in 2008". BUM!!
          • hehe, that's funny. BTW, which firm and group you are in? PM me if you don't mind to tell.
            • 哈哈,网上就是消遣调侃的,高兴过了也就完了。山水有相逢。
    • 闲come no事, read你的article, This 帖子,狠bull, look 完了, man 也 down了.
      • 兄弟:你更bull!
    • 金融危机是怎么来的... (zt)
      • 不值一看,真要了解,看看时代杂志,讲得浅显又清楚。
        • 给个链接吧
          • 没有电子版。对不起。
        • 你看的是那个月的时代周刊啊?
          • 有空帮你找。
            • 想看那篇文章, 找到了的话能麻烦告知一下吗? 要负责任啊. :)
    • 不太同意通货膨胀那段。起码不是7000亿国债就是印7000亿美元钞票那么简单。这要看7000亿卖给谁?这是问题的关键。国债的发行对象,不外两个渠道:
      • 国内老一辈的,象我,哈哈,财政金融是一回事。很多朋友看问题还是抱着这个观念。在中国,当年发债券,骗人的,赤字财政直接用印钞机搞定。LZ也还是这个观念,发债印钞分不清。美国应该不能这么操作,但黑幕之下也难说。美国货币发行增量是绝密吗?那位解释一下。中国是。
        • 中国货币发行增量是绝密。怎么来的? 现在网上不是每年公布出来吗?
      • 7000亿的来源基本就是中国。