本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Market has gone down nearly 20% from May peak so far, has the market bottomed or would go lower? No one can predict the short term, but what's the general direction in the mid-long term? This is really important for us to decide how to handle the equities in our hands now: to buy more at this "bottom" or reduce it when market rebounds?
There're two major opinions now:
No.1: S&P 500 will rebound to the neckline of 1260 and then would go down further, we're heading into a long long bear market, possibly testing the 2009 lows. - In this case we should reduce our equities and move to safer places when the market rebound to 1260 level;
No.2: This is still a bull market correction, market is close to the bottom, not much lower it can go, we should buy more at this time. The past one week is a biggest insiders buying week close to March 2009. Insiders are buying, we should do so too.
I think the key factors for this question are:
1) Would Fed roll out QE3 in the coming Jackson Hole meeting? Most people think Fed would not launch QE3 soon. Someone says without QE3, our market would head lower and lower.
2) Will european sovereign debt crisis continue to get worse and worse until the Euro zone collapse or it can finally get a soft landing, is it solvable? Someone said it's like a black hole, nobody has enough money to bail it. If that's the case, our market would continue to get jittered by bad news from Euro zone again and again.
What's your opinions and reasoning or could you share some good opinions/articles you saw?更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
There're two major opinions now:
No.1: S&P 500 will rebound to the neckline of 1260 and then would go down further, we're heading into a long long bear market, possibly testing the 2009 lows. - In this case we should reduce our equities and move to safer places when the market rebound to 1260 level;
No.2: This is still a bull market correction, market is close to the bottom, not much lower it can go, we should buy more at this time. The past one week is a biggest insiders buying week close to March 2009. Insiders are buying, we should do so too.
I think the key factors for this question are:
1) Would Fed roll out QE3 in the coming Jackson Hole meeting? Most people think Fed would not launch QE3 soon. Someone says without QE3, our market would head lower and lower.
2) Will european sovereign debt crisis continue to get worse and worse until the Euro zone collapse or it can finally get a soft landing, is it solvable? Someone said it's like a black hole, nobody has enough money to bail it. If that's the case, our market would continue to get jittered by bad news from Euro zone again and again.
What's your opinions and reasoning or could you share some good opinions/articles you saw?更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net