本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Summary: The FOMC cut the federal funds target rate from 1% to a range of 0% to 0.25%, more than consensus expectations for a 50bp cut (though satisfying the bias priced into the fed funds futures market). The Fed has noted the further deterioration in the economic outlook and the continued expected moderation in inflation. However, the most pertinent part of the communication is the Fed’s direct signal to markets that they intend to maintain an extremely accommodative monetary stance with the key statement that “the Committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.” This includes steps to maintain the size of the Fed’s balance sheet through purchases of agency debt and MBS (already announced), with the monetary authorities also now officially entertaining the prospect of outright purchases of long-term Treasury securities (mentioned in earlier speeches). Also of note is the central bank’s decision to state a target range for the fed funds rate at 0% to 0.25%, not only in an acknowledgement of the recent difficulty in keeping the rate at any stated target, but also as a signal that there will be no more “official” announcements of interest rate cuts. Indeed, with the effective rate averaging below 0.25% in recent days, a distinction between the target being at 0% or at 0.25% is, for all intents and purposes, meaningless. The currency market’s reaction has been to swiftly sell off the USD against the majors even after the day’s significant USD weakness. However, aside from the gloomy commentary on the real economy and the explicit commitment to keeping rates at an exceptionally low level, there isn’t much in the statement that justifies such a dramatic market response. The change in the target simply validates the reality of where the Fed funds rate has been trading, and the discussion of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities was mentioned by Chairman Bernanke just two weeks ago. Even the low rate commitment should come as little surprise, as this is considered by many to be a key ingredient of an effective quantitative easing program. (SC FX)更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net