本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛USDCAD (1.1905) The USD and JPY are weaker following a solid session in Asia’s equity market (Japan was closed due to holidays), while CHF is also underperforming. The weakness in the three lowest-yielding G10 currencies suggests that risk appetite is healthier today – most of the remaining G10 currencies are up 1% or more against the USD, while numerous EM currencies are also stronger (led by a 2.3% rise in KRW). Commodity prices are mixed, with the energy complex and copper weaker but many other commodity prices showing gains. CAD is following the broader G10 trend, strengthening 1½% against the USD. USDCAD has broken through 1.1950 and is testing support at the lower edge of last week’s trading range (just above 1.1900). A break here would open up a move down to 1.1740/50, with the 1.1500 level representing a 50% pullback from the appreciation since the November 2007 low. European equities have given back some of their early gains and are nearly flat on the session. Should this trend continue in the North American session, it may complicate efforts by the higher-yielding G10 currencies to hold onto their early gains. However, with rate cuts expected from a trio of G10 central banks this week (the RBA, BoE and ECB), we suspect the USD will continue to trade defensively for now as investors focus on the potential benefits of policymaker activism. The USD became overbought in October and the inevitable consolidation is now underway, with the biggest losers in October (AUD, NZD and CAD) exploiting this particularly effectively over the past week. Today the focus will be on the ISM manufacturing index, although the session may be relatively subdued ahead of tomorrow’s US election. Credit conditions continued to improve today, with 3-month USD Libor falling 18bps to 2.86%. The 3-month rate has almost returned to its pre-Lehman collapse levels, although this improvement has not been as swift as the change in Fed interest rate expectations. The 3-month Libor-OIS spread stands at 223bps – still more than 140bps above its early September level.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net