本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛OCTOBER 28, 2008, 12:09 P.M. ET
By RIVA FROYMOVICH
NEW YORK -- U.S. consumer confidence fell to an all-time low in October, after a slight rise a month earlier, and expectations are even bleaker, a report released Tuesday said.
The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer confidence for October dropped to 38.0, compared with a revised reading of 61.4 in September. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected a reading of 51.5.
The 23.4 point drop in the index was the third largest monthly drop in the series' history, the board said.
The consumer expectations index for the state of economic activity over the next six months declined to 35.5 in October from 61.5 in September.
"The impact of the financial crisis over the last several weeks has clearly taken a toll on consumers' confidence," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center. "Their earnings outlook, as well as inflation outlook, is also more pessimistic, and this news doesn't bode well for retailers who are already bracing for what is shaping up to be a very challenging holiday season."
The sharp confidence fall is causing economists to cut their estimate for consumer spending in the fourth quarter.
Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics estimated that if the expectation index remains at 35.5, real consumer spending would fall at an annual rate of about 3.5% this quarter, worse than the 3% drop he expects in the third quarter.
But what may help the outlook, he said, is the decline in gasoline prices and the belief that stock prices won't continue to fall as badly as they have already.
Even so, the damage to household finances has already been done.
"A consumer-led recession is upon us, and it promises to be a serious one," said Joshua Shapiro of MFR.
The present situation index, a gauge of consumers' assessment of current economic conditions, fell to 41.9 from 61.1 in the prior month.
Consumers took a very dismal view of the current job market. The percentage who think jobs are hard to get rose to 37.2% in October from 32.2% in September. At the start of 2008, only 20.6% thought jobs were hard to get.
The report was released as the Federal Reserve started a two-day meeting to set monetary policy. The sharp fall in confidence bolsters the view that the Fed will cut the fed funds rate by 50 basis points, to 1%.
—Kathleen Madigan contributed to this article.
Write to Riva Froymovich at riva.froymovich@dowjones.com更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
By RIVA FROYMOVICH
NEW YORK -- U.S. consumer confidence fell to an all-time low in October, after a slight rise a month earlier, and expectations are even bleaker, a report released Tuesday said.
The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer confidence for October dropped to 38.0, compared with a revised reading of 61.4 in September. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected a reading of 51.5.
The 23.4 point drop in the index was the third largest monthly drop in the series' history, the board said.
The consumer expectations index for the state of economic activity over the next six months declined to 35.5 in October from 61.5 in September.
"The impact of the financial crisis over the last several weeks has clearly taken a toll on consumers' confidence," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center. "Their earnings outlook, as well as inflation outlook, is also more pessimistic, and this news doesn't bode well for retailers who are already bracing for what is shaping up to be a very challenging holiday season."
The sharp confidence fall is causing economists to cut their estimate for consumer spending in the fourth quarter.
Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics estimated that if the expectation index remains at 35.5, real consumer spending would fall at an annual rate of about 3.5% this quarter, worse than the 3% drop he expects in the third quarter.
But what may help the outlook, he said, is the decline in gasoline prices and the belief that stock prices won't continue to fall as badly as they have already.
Even so, the damage to household finances has already been done.
"A consumer-led recession is upon us, and it promises to be a serious one," said Joshua Shapiro of MFR.
The present situation index, a gauge of consumers' assessment of current economic conditions, fell to 41.9 from 61.1 in the prior month.
Consumers took a very dismal view of the current job market. The percentage who think jobs are hard to get rose to 37.2% in October from 32.2% in September. At the start of 2008, only 20.6% thought jobs were hard to get.
The report was released as the Federal Reserve started a two-day meeting to set monetary policy. The sharp fall in confidence bolsters the view that the Fed will cut the fed funds rate by 50 basis points, to 1%.
—Kathleen Madigan contributed to this article.
Write to Riva Froymovich at riva.froymovich@dowjones.com更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net