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@Philadelphia

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  • MFC是传统的退休股,如今长成这样
    • 传统退休股?09年曾从42高峰到10以下,股市长期涨时variable annuity 长期定价问题,以后减市场风险,多年后才恢复过来。 +2
    • 这就是典型的Dividend Trap,看看Telus, Fortis这些。为啥发Dividend?因为没有Grow的希望,赚多发多。和买GIC有啥区别?惦记人那点股息,人家惦记你的本金。
      • 典型的国内炒股思维 典型的国内炒股思维 +2

        FORTIS 一定是一个可以作为bond proxy 的长期stock asset

        MFC is a diversified stock geographically speaking, and I believe its values, I purchased MFC from the high of $26+ to the low of $19+ during the past 3+ years, and now it is around $33. I still believe it will grow to $40+ within the next two years due to interest drop.

        Currently, it has a dividend payment of $1.6/year, and the div yield is about 1.6/32.99=4.85%.

        If we assume it will increase dividend by 5% per year (for the past 5 years, it increases its div by about 10% every year), and we assume the div yield will come down to 4% due to interest rate reduction, we get a stock price estimate as 1.6*1.05*1.05/0.04=$44.1.

        Today I saw that MFC has been approved for its stock buy-back plan, this will further enhance the stock price down the road

        • 图你看得懂吧?浅蓝是SPY, 紫色是Nasdaq.不用说什么了。


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          • 就不要与美市比了,加市是发达国家极差的,一年差近20%,美元计更差。加市mfc也不是稳健,离2007高点还有30%。投资者并不都是只追求最高回报,退休股是稳又有相对好的回报
            • 你没有算上股息分红吧,看除息除权图MFC已创出历史新高
            • 我为啥说它是垃圾呢,要不和TD比一下?TD Beta还低,Forward dividend yield 还高。TD是不是加股?完爆。


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              • MFC在08年的时候,大伤元气,近5年,它的回报比TD RY都好。当然,相对美股美指,都是垃圾。


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              • TD与MFC自2000年以来“如实”对比图
              • 5年收益对比
      • 怎么没有区别?GIC和dividend的税完全不同。target at dividend是一个非常有效的投资方式。不用trash别人的风格。
        • 我并不是想Trash别人的投资风格,毕竟有些人只敢买GIC或者Dividend stock,风险承受能力就这么高。我更想说的是脱离total return谈Dividend 其实就是耍流氓,很多人只看到了高Dividend,没有看到机会成本,或者完全没有意识到这点,非常遗憾。
    • 想赚钱,远离加股。整个加拿大市场,就没几个值得投资的股票。
    • MFC季线图,A dividend-adjusted chart shows the total return of the asset.