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FORTIS 一定是一个可以作为bond proxy 的长期stock asset
MFC is a diversified stock geographically speaking, and I believe its values, I purchased MFC from the high of $26+ to the low of $19+ during the past 3+ years, and now it is around $33. I still believe it will grow to $40+ within the next two years due to interest drop.
Currently, it has a dividend payment of $1.6/year, and the div yield is about 1.6/32.99=4.85%.
If we assume it will increase dividend by 5% per year (for the past 5 years, it increases its div by about 10% every year), and we assume the div yield will come down to 4% due to interest rate reduction, we get a stock price estimate as 1.6*1.05*1.05/0.04=$44.1.
Today I saw that MFC has been approved for its stock buy-back plan, this will further enhance the stock price down the road
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I am happy that my prediction (based on my analysis) is correct, and I am also surprised it has reached my $40 goal so quickly (within 8 months instead of my expected 2 years).
But I do have some concerns regarding MFC now mostly because it has pretty big chunk of investment in China / HongKong (combined), while the population of China's wealthy people will very likely dwindle quickly in the next 5 to 10 years under the current government.
