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  • 最优利率和cashback可以申请特批,好信用好收入offer更好。请点链接扫码加微信咨询,Scotiabank -- Nick Zhang 6478812600。
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  • 最优利率和cashback可以申请特批,好信用好收入offer更好。请点链接扫码加微信咨询,Scotiabank -- Nick Zhang 6478812600。

你的comments很有意思,但不怎么make sense. No offense and I'm open for discussion.

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛1)“going concern 主要看balance sheet,及收入的outlook. 光看现在的income statement是不够的” - in my article, I mentioned about external FS and MD&A,
external FS包括了income statements, statements of comprehensive income, balance sheets, statement of retained earnings and statements of cashflow.
I never said by just looking at IS will give me sufficient information to do the assessment. 如果你有看过MD&A,你应该知道,MD&A里不仅包括了你所
指的”收入的outlook“,还有公司未来几年的发展计划。FFP公司既然有going concern问题,它自己当然早就意识到了,所以它的MD&A里有两页都是写如何去补救,否则我
怎么会知道"FPP估计把部分不用的plant & equipments卖掉的话可以generate ~100M cash inflow". Also, I don't agree with you that "going concern 主要看balance
sheet", balance sheet 能看的可能就是working capital,至于其它的,如land, building, plant & equipment就没多大意义,先别说公司需要这些fixed assets继
续运作,即使都卖了换现金,那也的有人要啊! 与其说balance sheet, 不如说cashflow更有用。2) “200M loss 应该是negative earnings,其中120M是interest exp, 它的
operating loss 只是80M而已”,thanks for questioning my mathematical skills, I admit that my math skills isn't that great, but can't be that bad either.
请你先分清楚income statement and cashflow, $150M-$200 net loss is in income statement, fixed interest payment on senior notes ~$120M is presented in
cashflow statement, please note I said fixed interest payment (actual cash payment), not interest expense. You must be confused with these two. Interest
expenses, a lot of time, include non-cash expenses, such as bond discount amortization, amortization of deferred financing costs, etc...
3) "美加贸易纠纷的解决,有人愿借1.2 Billion给这个公司等等,都是要考虑的因素" - don't know why "美加贸易" come in play here as both are Canadian owned
public companies. Also, where do you get $1.2 billion from? For any companies that may have going concern issues, I will only look at their existing unutilized
credit facility or operating line of credit, 因为像FPP这种有going concern问题的公司,你以为还有哪个银行或financing 公司会贷更多的款项给它?

Anyways, thanks for reading my article and thanks for your comments. Again, positive or negative comments are all welcome!更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • Treasury系列之 - Going Concern Assessment of a Credit Customer
    本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Treasurer 这个星期还在Vacation, 本以为可以轻轻松松的混过这个星期,没想到今
    天一大早就被CFO叫进了办公室, 一脸严肃的对我说,现在有一个特殊的,紧急的任
    务要你去完成,越快越好! 通常老板说越快越好那就是逃不过今天了! 没办法了,
    就算找救兵也来不及了,只好硬着头皮上吧!

    说起来其实也不是太大的事。我们在BC的一个分公司收到了一份Purchase Order,
    是一家做forest product,pulp & paper,TSX上市公司(这里就称它"FPP"公司) 想
    从我们分公司订购一台用在forestry的大型机器。这个公司一直和我们有生意上的
    往来,是我们的credit customer。最近分公司收到消息,FPP可能有going concern问
    题,不知这个公司还能维持多久。分公司希望corporate office可以给他们建议,
    是不是还要继续把机器卖给FPP,on credit.

    既然牵涉到公司利益,自然不敢怠慢,马上找到了这个公司的网站,把今年和前两
    年的annual report (包括MD&A 和external FS)都打印了出来。花了整整半天的时
    间go through了所有的和这个公司相关的报表及文件,接着又用了几个小时做了很
    多分析,最后整理成一份报告亲手交给了CFO。当然光交报告还不行,还必须把报告
    的要点给CFO present 一下,让他对自己做的分析有个大致的了解,详细的报告可
    以留着让他慢慢看。经过了差不多一天的努力,最终得出的结论是FPP公司的确有going
    concern问题,而且很有可能最多再维持一年。

    细节的分析在这里就不写了,有几个挺有意思的数据还是想提一下,FPP这几年每年
    的亏损大概是$150M-$200M,每年fixed interest payment on senior notes ~$120M,
    mininum maintenance capital expenditure ~$60M, FPP估计把部分不用的plant
    & equipments卖掉的话可以generate ~100M cash inflow. FPP的unused / unutilized
    credit facility + operating line of credit = ~250M.如果单从这些数据上来看,
    FPP也就只能维持个一年左右的时间吧!

    忙了一天,到下午快五点的时候,正准备整理一下回家,谁不知CFO又神不知鬼不觉
    的出现了在我的办公室门口(以前总以为executives走路都是很有气势的,远远的就
    能听见脚步声,我们这位CFO可能学过轻功,来无声,去无影的那种!)。心想这下完
    了,又得加班了。正在心里想骂人的时候,CFO伸手递过来一份文件,一份一家投资
    公司对FPP股票的分析报告。一看,心里暗暗自喜,分析报告中指出FPP的股价会在
    12个月里跌至$0.00 per share and they are recommending to sell FPP stocks
    on hand as quick as you can.

    看着CFO满意的笑容,总算是顺利过关! 可以好好过个周末了!

    看过我以前写的两篇有关treasury文章的朋友就会知道以上的工作属于treasury responsibilities的
    第七块 - Special Projects.

    祝大家周末快乐!更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
    • interesting topic.. can someone elabrate more on this topic next meeting.? what skills set required in order to make such analysis. thx..
      • 建议你看一下我之前写的两篇介绍treasury的文章,在“会计论坛”
        • 不错,顶一个
    • Very insightful and useful. It worths the reading. Thx for sharing.~
    • Very good! Thank you for sharing
    • 好看!再些几篇就可以编辑成册了....
    • Thank you for taking the time to share with us. Great info.
    • very interesting,thanks for sharing, I also saw the other two articles. Give me some knowledge about treasury.thanks.
      • I'm glad you enjoyed it, thanks everyone! :-)
    • going concern 主要看balance sheet,及收入的outlook. 光看现在的income statement是不够的。
      200M loss 应该是negative earnings,其中120M是interest exp, 它的operating loss 只是80M而已。缺少别的信息但你的算术是有疑问的。以知的是公司要采购新的大型机器,美加贸易纠纷的解决,有人愿借1.2 Billion给这个公司等等,都是要考虑的因素。
      • 你的comments很有意思,但不怎么make sense. No offense and I'm open for discussion.
        本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛1)“going concern 主要看balance sheet,及收入的outlook. 光看现在的income statement是不够的” - in my article, I mentioned about external FS and MD&A,
        external FS包括了income statements, statements of comprehensive income, balance sheets, statement of retained earnings and statements of cashflow.
        I never said by just looking at IS will give me sufficient information to do the assessment. 如果你有看过MD&A,你应该知道,MD&A里不仅包括了你所
        指的”收入的outlook“,还有公司未来几年的发展计划。FFP公司既然有going concern问题,它自己当然早就意识到了,所以它的MD&A里有两页都是写如何去补救,否则我
        怎么会知道"FPP估计把部分不用的plant & equipments卖掉的话可以generate ~100M cash inflow". Also, I don't agree with you that "going concern 主要看balance
        sheet", balance sheet 能看的可能就是working capital,至于其它的,如land, building, plant & equipment就没多大意义,先别说公司需要这些fixed assets继
        续运作,即使都卖了换现金,那也的有人要啊! 与其说balance sheet, 不如说cashflow更有用。2) “200M loss 应该是negative earnings,其中120M是interest exp, 它的
        operating loss 只是80M而已”,thanks for questioning my mathematical skills, I admit that my math skills isn't that great, but can't be that bad either.
        请你先分清楚income statement and cashflow, $150M-$200 net loss is in income statement, fixed interest payment on senior notes ~$120M is presented in
        cashflow statement, please note I said fixed interest payment (actual cash payment), not interest expense. You must be confused with these two. Interest
        expenses, a lot of time, include non-cash expenses, such as bond discount amortization, amortization of deferred financing costs, etc...
        3) "美加贸易纠纷的解决,有人愿借1.2 Billion给这个公司等等,都是要考虑的因素" - don't know why "美加贸易" come in play here as both are Canadian owned
        public companies. Also, where do you get $1.2 billion from? For any companies that may have going concern issues, I will only look at their existing unutilized
        credit facility or operating line of credit, 因为像FPP这种有going concern问题的公司,你以为还有哪个银行或financing 公司会贷更多的款项给它?

        Anyways, thanks for reading my article and thanks for your comments. Again, positive or negative comments are all welcome!更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
    • Just curious, since you only spent one day to conclude that the company has going concern problem, how's auditor's report? Did auditor not see the problem and no disclosure in the FS?
      • 哈哈,这个问题问得好!不愧是CGA (没猜错吧!)。Auditor's report 还真是一个字都没提going concern的问题。我首先看的就是auditor's report,
        当时就很纳闷哪! One of the possibilities is this company is still on the boarder line.
        不过话说回来了,我这里说的花了一天的时间去做了那么多的分析,不是只是为了
        证实这个公司有going concern 的问题(其实这个谁都能很快发现问题),这里更多的
        是从Treasury角度做的分析。更多细节的东西在article里就省略了!