本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — China must be secretly rooting for a guy like Rick Perry as the next U.S. president. They’d love competing against an America led by another Texas governor who talks from a big hat, loves war spending and tea parties, thinks the Fed chairman is acting “treasonous,” believes Social Security is a “Ponzi scheme” and admits he’s an antiscience, antievolution, anti-intellectual who will turn back the clock to the 19th century frontier Wild West.
Yes, China’s rooting for a guy who will not only make Washington “inconsequential” for all Americans, he’ll make America “inconsequential” in a world where China knows that its competitive edge and economic growth all hinge on investing in science, innovation and intellectuals with a vision of the future.
You can bet China’s leaders are cheering for a president who’ll stall the American economy even further while China races ahead of us in the global economic war. China would probably settle for the other leading GOP candidate, that ex-governor whose values shift with the latest polls and Tea Party questions … whatever happened to the GOP’s Bill Buckley soul?
China’s commie-capitalism beating GOP’s Reaganomics since 2000
Adam Smith’s original 1776 capitalism made America the world’s greatest superpower. We’ve lost that too. So America’s now in a handicap race with China, and losing. Why?
In just the past decade China’s state-run hybrid commie-capitalism has beaten the American economy, going from a “poor country” to racing ahead to global economic dominance. Unfortunately, our politicians just don’t get it. They’re like high school teens fighting a turf war who can’t see the building’s burning down.
In his “Triumph of Politics Over Economics,” Reagan’s budget director David Stockman warns: “America’s at a crossroads struggling to redefine ourselves, at a time when even Reagan couldn’t win the GOP nomination. Why? Because myopic politicians have hijacked the economy. Politicians are the new economists. Politicians now run the economy, puppets of the Super Rich and special-interest lobbyists.”
Stockman calls this corrupt system Crony Capitalism. We call it Reaganomics and Doomsday Capitalism, a sellf-destructive ideology that works to China’s advantage.
Here are 11 reasons China’s leaders would love an inconsequential president making America inconsequential in China’s march to economic world domination:
1. China’s economy: $123 trillion, 3 times America’s by 2040
In an eye-opening Foreign Policy cover story last year titled “$123,000,000,000,000: Why China’s economy will grow to $123 trillion by 2040,” Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago writes about China’s unbelievable leap forward. Back in 2000, just one decade ago, China was a “poor country” when the GOP and its “war president” took over control of America, announcing that “debt doesn’t matter.”
Yes, by 2040 “the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China’s per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union … much higher than that of India and Japan … the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman … Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capita wealth … China’s share of global GDP— 40% — will dwarf that of the United States (14%) and the EU (5%) 30 years from now,” one brief generation.
2. China’s political system is more capitalist than America’s
“The Chinese political system is likely not what you think,” says Fogel, “Most economic reforms, including the most successful ones, have been locally driven and overseen.” Today there’s “more criticism and debate in upper echelons of policymaking.”
Fogel attends meetings of the Chinese Economists Society. Many economists are openly “critical of the Chinese government,” will even “point out that the latest decision by the finance ministry is flawed … even publish a critical letter in a Beijing newspaper.”
3. China is rapidly turning into a capitalist consumer economy
Yes, “China’s long-repressed consumerist tendencies” are exploding,” says Fogel: “In many ways, China is the most capitalist country in the world right now.”
Get it? While we borrow from China then waste money fighting wars, while Wall Street and the Super Rich are amassing wealth in the hands of the top 1%, “in the big Chinese cities, living standards and per capita income are at the level of countries the World Bank would deem ‘high middle-income,’ with a clear, growing affinity for acquiring clothes, electronics, fast food, automobiles.”
Why? Because China’s leaders “made the judgment that increasing domestic consumption will be critical to China’s economy, and a host of domestic policies now aim to increase Chinese consumers’ appetite for acquisitions.
4. China’s massive investments in education, ahead of America
China’s making “enormous investments” in education, says Fogel. They know “educated workers are much more productive workers. … college-educated workers are three times as productive … a high school graduate is 1.8 times as productive as a worker with less than a ninth-grade education.”
In the next generation China’s high school enrollment rate could reach 100%, the college rate about 50%, adding “more than 6 percentage points to the country’s annual economic growth rate.” Meanwhile, America runs up massive debts wasting trillions on wars, shortchanging education.
5: China’s locking up global resources, using U.S. dollar reserves
The title of a Malcolm Knox feature in BusinessWeek says it all: “The deal is simple. Australia gets money. China gets Australia.” Wake up America: While our clueless myopic politicians are fighting self-destructive election turf wars, China is using its reserves (U.S. dollars!) to buy rights to Australia’s commodities and natural resources, giving China long-term access to natural gas, minerals, iron ore.
And that’s just one continent: China’s quietly buying up future rights to commodity-resources worldwide.
6. China’s rural economy of 700 million adding to growth rate
Go beyond the Shanghai high-rises and Guangdong factories,” says Fogel. You’ll see “changes afoot in the Chinese countryside … an under-appreciated economic engine.”
From 1978 to 2003 China’s labor productivity averaged about 6%. In the future, productivity will also increase in rural areas, for about 700 million or half of China. “That large rural sector is responsible for about a third of Chinese economic growth today” and will explode as a new generation adds another hundred million.
7. China’s government statistics underreporting progress
Don’t be misled by reports that “Chinese data are flawed or deliberately inflated in key ways,” says Fogel. Just the opposite: Their “statisticians may well be underestimating economic progress … Small firms often don’t report their numbers to the government.”
And as in America, “official estimates of GDP badly underestimate national growth” because they don’t “take into account improvements in services such as education and health care.” In short, “the rapid growth of China’s service sector makes the underestimation more pronounced.”
8: Yes, China does have a long-range plan to conquer America
China is America’s worst nightmare, engaged in economic warfare against us on multiple fronts: Stealing millions of jobs, stealing U.S. state secrets, stealing proprietary patents, stealing technology, stealing our wealth. China has also forged strategic alliances with our enemies, Iran, Venezuela and North Korea. China is engaged in a not-so-secret cyber-war against America.
Ross Terrill, a China expert at Harvard, wrote in the Wilson Quarterly: “The Chinese Communists are very aware of this contest with the United States, though Americans (beyond the Pentagon) are not.” Terrill warns: “By being a shrinking violet, the United States would simply hand over the future to China.”
9: China’s aware of Pentagon strategies, is one-upping generals
You know China’s generals have copies of the Pentagon’s strategic war manual. New York Times columnist Paul Krugman warns of China’s long-range plans beyond waging “economic warfare” and tying up long-term natural resources.
Krugman says China’s actions tell us they’re planning long-term military strategies as well as economic war. He warns that in the near future, some seemly inconsequential incident may provoke “dangerously trigger-happy” Chinese leaders into escalating from defensive military strategies to a preemptive strike to advance China’s economic power.
10. The “Goldman Conspiracy” is helping China sabotage America
Li Delin’s “The Goldman Sachs Conspiracy” was a best seller in China. His Chinese readers love his vivid description: “Goldman Sachs knows when to go for your neck” like a “Manchurian tiger.”
Actually China’s playing a clever game: As author Matt Taibbi might say, China is now a “vampire squid wrapped around the face of Goldman, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into Goldman’s capital, talent and connections.” Eventually China will suck the life out of Goldman.
11. By 2040 China will be the world’s biggest superpower (again)
“To the West, the notion of a world in which the center of global economic gravity lies in Asia may seem unimaginable,” says Fogel. “But it wouldn’t be the first time. … China was the world’s largest economy for 18 of the past 20 centuries. … While Europe was fumbling in the Dark Ages and fighting disastrous religious wars, China cultivated the highest standards of living in the world. Today, the notion of a rising China is, in Chinese eyes, merely a return to the status quo.”
And thanks to guys like Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan, Rick Perry, Barack Obama, the Goldman Conspiracy and buddies, China is destined to once again become the world’s superpower by 2040, when China’s economy is three times bigger than America’s.
中国肯定私下里支持里克•佩里(Rick Perry)这样的人当选下届美国总统。他们愿意和另一个德州州长所领导的美国展开竞争。这位州长总是夸夸其谈，热爱战争开支，支持茶党，认为美联储主席(Fed)主席的种种行为是“叛国”，觉得社会保障(Social Security)计划是个旁氏骗局(Ponzi scheme)，还承认自己反科学、反进化论、反知识分子，宁愿让美国回到19世纪那种“狂野西部”的状况。
没错，中国支持的这样一个家伙，他不仅会让华盛顿对所有美国人来说变得无足轻重，还会让美国对全世界来说变得微不足道，而中国却知道，自己的竞争优势和经济增长全部取决于对科研、创新和有远见的人才的投资。
你尽可以相信，中国领导人正在给一个会让美国经济进一步陷入停滞的总统加油，而中国则趁此时机在这场全球经济大战中冲到我们前头。中国很可能会接受共和党另一个主要提名人、那位价值观随着最新民意调查和茶党的质疑而转移的前州长……如保守派代表人物比尔•巴克利(Bill Buckley)那样的共和党灵魂人物都到哪去了？
中国的社会资本主义自2000年以来就击败了共和党的里根经济学
亚当•斯密(Adam Smith)1776年关于资本主义的大作让美国成了世界上最伟大的超级大国。我们已经失去了这个称号。美国目前在与中国的竞争中失了先机，并且即将输掉这场比赛。原因何在？
就在过去10年里，中国政府主导的社会资本杂交主义打败了美国经济，中国从一个穷国变成全球经济霸主地位竞赛的领先者。遗憾的是，美国政客并没有弄清楚这一点。他们就像争夺地盘的高中生，看不到自己的大楼正在烧毁。
里根的预算负责人斯托克曼(David Stockman)在他的著作《政治学对经济学的胜利》(Triumph of Politics Over Economics)中提醒道：美国站在一个十字路口，拼命要重新界定自己，此时即便是里根都不可能获得共和党提名。为什么呢？因为目光短浅的政客绑架了美国经济。政客成了新经济学家，如今政客们掌管着美国经济，他们是超级富豪的玩偶，也是有着特殊利益的说客。
斯托克曼把这种腐败的体制称为权贵资本主义，我们称之为里根经济学和末日资本主义，这是一种自我毁灭的意识形态，对中国有利。
在中国迈向世界经济霸主的过程中，中国领导人为什么会喜欢一个让美国变得无足轻重、其本身也并不重要的美国总统？以下是我的11条理由：
1.到2040年，中国的经济总量将达到123万亿美元，是美国的三倍
诺贝尔经济学奖得主、美国芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)的福格尔(Robert W. Fogel)去年在美国《外交政策》(Foreign Policy)杂志上发表了一篇名为《123万亿美元：为何中国经济规模2040年将增至123万亿美元》($123,000,000,000,000: Why China's economy will grow to $123 trillion by 2040)的封面文章，其中讲述了中国令人难以置信的跨越式经济发展。在2000年，也就是10年前，中国还是一个穷国，当时共和党与其“战争总统”执掌美国，宣称债务无关紧要。
没错，到2040年，中国经济规模将达到123万亿美元，是2000年全球经济总产出的近三倍，中国人均收入将达到8.5万美元，是欧盟(European Union)预期人均收入的两倍多……远远超过印度和日本……生活在中国百万人口以上的大城市的居民生活水平将是法国人的两倍……虽然届时人均财富规模尚未超过美国……但30年后，中国GDP占全球总量的比重将达到40%，远超美国的14%和欧盟的5%，而这只是短短一个世代的时间。
2.中国的政治制度比美国还资本主义
福格尔说，中国的政治制度可能并不是人们所想的那样；大多数经济改革，包括最成功的几次在内，都是地方政府推动并监督的。如今的高层决策存在更多的批评和争论。
福格尔经常出席中国留美经济学会（Chinese Economists Society）的会议。许多经济学家公开对中国政府持批评态度，甚至会指出财政部所作的最新决策是有缺陷的……甚至会在北京的一家报纸发表批评信。
3.中国正在迅速变成消费者主导的资本主义经济
福格尔说，没错，中国长期被压抑的消费主义趋势正在爆发；从许多方面来看，中国都是目前世界上最具资本主义特点的国家。
明白了吗？在我们从中国借钱然后把钱浪费在打战上的时候，在华尔街和巨富们把财富聚集在最富1%人群手中的时候，在中国的大城市，生活水平和人均收入正处于世界银行（World Bank）所认定的“中高收入”水平，人们也明显越来越热衷于购买服装、电子产品、快餐和汽车。
原因何在？因为中国领导人做出了扩大内需对中国经济至关重要的决策，并推出了一系列国内政策旨在提高中国消费者的购买胃口。
4.中国对教育的大规模投资超过美国
福格尔说，中国正在对教育进行“巨额投资”。他们知道受过教育的劳动者效率会大大提高，上过大学的劳动者效率会增加两倍，高中毕业生的效率是受九年级以下教育劳动者的1.8倍。
在未来三十年，中国的高中入学率可能会达到100%，大学入学率约50%，为中国年经济增长率贡献6个以上的百分点。与此同时，美国负债累累，把数万亿美元挥霍在战争上，克扣对教育方面的投入。
5.中国正在垄断全球资源，使用美元储备
诺克斯（Malcolm Knox）在《商业周刊》（BusinessWeek）的一篇特写文章的标题说明了一切：交易很简单，澳大利亚拿钱，中国得到澳大利亚。醒醒吧美国：我们目光短浅的糊涂政治家为自我毁灭的选举打地盘战时，中国正在用外汇储备（美元！）购买澳大利亚大宗商品和自然资源的所有权，让中国长期享有天然气、矿产和铁矿石。
而且这还只是一个大陆而已：中国正在悄悄购买全球各地大宗商品和自然资源的期权。
6.中国7亿人口的农村经济在为增长率做贡献
福格尔说，除了上海的高楼大厦和广东的工厂，你会看到中国农村正在发生巨大变化，这是被人低估的一个经济引擎。
从1978年到2003年，中国的劳动生产率约以平均每年6%的速度增长。未来农村地区的生产率还会增长，目前中国农村人口约为7亿，占中国总人口的一半。广大农村地区的经济约占现在中国经济增长的三分之一，并会随着下一代新增的100万人口而迅速发展。
7. 中国政府的统计数据低估了经济发展的程度
福格尔说，别被“中国统计数据有误或关键数据被故意夸大”等报道误导。情况正好相反：中国的“统计人员很可能低估了经济发展的程度... ...小企业往往不向政府报告经营数据”。
就像在美国，官方估计的国内生产总值（GDP）严重低估国家经济增长水平，因为官方数据没有将教育和医疗保健等服务的改善考虑在内。简言之，中国服务业的快速增长令这种低估更加明显。
8. 是的，中国确有征服美国的长期计划
中国是美国最恐怖的噩梦，它们在经济上的许多方面和我们开战：中国窃取了我们数百万的就业机会；窃取了美国的国家机密；窃取了专利所有权；窃取了技术；窃取了美国的财富；中国还同美国的敌人建立了战略联盟，其中包括伊朗、委内瑞拉和朝鲜；中国正在毫不掩饰地从事针对美国的网络战争。
哈佛大学中国问题专家特里尔（Ross Terrill）在《威尔逊季刊》（Wilson Quarterly）中写道，中国共产党人非常清楚这场同美国的较量，但美国人（不仅包括五角大楼内的人）却并不清楚。特里尔警告说，如果还是胆小怕羞，美国只会将未来交到中国手上。
9. 先人一步的中国军事将领清楚五角大楼的策略
你知道吗：中国的军事将领有五角大楼的战略战争手册的副本。《纽约时报》专栏作家保罗•克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）警告说，中国的长期计划可不仅仅是发动“经济战”和长期抢占自然资源。
克鲁格曼说，中国的举动告诉我们，他们正在计划长期军事战略和经济战。他警告说，在不久的将来，一些看似无关紧要的事件可能会促使“危险好战”的中国领导人将防御性国防政策升级为先发制人的打击，以促进中国的经济实力。
10. 《高盛阴谋》帮助中国破坏美国
李德林的《高盛阴谋》在中国曾是畅销书。他的中文读者喜欢他生动的描述：高盛像一头“东北虎”，“知道什么时候掐你的脖子”。
事实上，中国在玩一个更高明的游戏：就像美国作家马特•泰比（Matt Taibbi）可能说过的那样，中国现在就像一只缠住高盛面孔的吸血乌贼，正无情地吸取高盛的资本、人才和人脉，最终中国将榨光高盛的资源。
11. 到2040年中国将（再次）成为全球最有实力的超级大国
福格尔说，对于西方国家来说，亚洲成为全球经济重心的想法看来可能是不可思议的。但这并非中国首次成为全球最大经济体，在过去20个世纪中，中国在18个世纪里都是全球最大的经济体。当欧洲还在黑暗的中世纪里慢慢摸索并发动灾难性的宗教战争时，中国树立了当时全球最高的生活标准。如今，在中国人看来，一个正在崛起的中国的提法不过是回归现状罢了。
多亏了参议员麦康奈尔（Mitch McConnell）、众议员瑞安（Paul Ryan），德州更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
Yes, China’s rooting for a guy who will not only make Washington “inconsequential” for all Americans, he’ll make America “inconsequential” in a world where China knows that its competitive edge and economic growth all hinge on investing in science, innovation and intellectuals with a vision of the future.
You can bet China’s leaders are cheering for a president who’ll stall the American economy even further while China races ahead of us in the global economic war. China would probably settle for the other leading GOP candidate, that ex-governor whose values shift with the latest polls and Tea Party questions … whatever happened to the GOP’s Bill Buckley soul?
China’s commie-capitalism beating GOP’s Reaganomics since 2000
Adam Smith’s original 1776 capitalism made America the world’s greatest superpower. We’ve lost that too. So America’s now in a handicap race with China, and losing. Why?
In just the past decade China’s state-run hybrid commie-capitalism has beaten the American economy, going from a “poor country” to racing ahead to global economic dominance. Unfortunately, our politicians just don’t get it. They’re like high school teens fighting a turf war who can’t see the building’s burning down.
In his “Triumph of Politics Over Economics,” Reagan’s budget director David Stockman warns: “America’s at a crossroads struggling to redefine ourselves, at a time when even Reagan couldn’t win the GOP nomination. Why? Because myopic politicians have hijacked the economy. Politicians are the new economists. Politicians now run the economy, puppets of the Super Rich and special-interest lobbyists.”
Stockman calls this corrupt system Crony Capitalism. We call it Reaganomics and Doomsday Capitalism, a sellf-destructive ideology that works to China’s advantage.
Here are 11 reasons China’s leaders would love an inconsequential president making America inconsequential in China’s march to economic world domination:
1. China’s economy: $123 trillion, 3 times America’s by 2040
In an eye-opening Foreign Policy cover story last year titled “$123,000,000,000,000: Why China’s economy will grow to $123 trillion by 2040,” Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago writes about China’s unbelievable leap forward. Back in 2000, just one decade ago, China was a “poor country” when the GOP and its “war president” took over control of America, announcing that “debt doesn’t matter.”
Yes, by 2040 “the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China’s per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union … much higher than that of India and Japan … the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman … Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capita wealth … China’s share of global GDP— 40% — will dwarf that of the United States (14%) and the EU (5%) 30 years from now,” one brief generation.
2. China’s political system is more capitalist than America’s
“The Chinese political system is likely not what you think,” says Fogel, “Most economic reforms, including the most successful ones, have been locally driven and overseen.” Today there’s “more criticism and debate in upper echelons of policymaking.”
Fogel attends meetings of the Chinese Economists Society. Many economists are openly “critical of the Chinese government,” will even “point out that the latest decision by the finance ministry is flawed … even publish a critical letter in a Beijing newspaper.”
3. China is rapidly turning into a capitalist consumer economy
Yes, “China’s long-repressed consumerist tendencies” are exploding,” says Fogel: “In many ways, China is the most capitalist country in the world right now.”
Get it? While we borrow from China then waste money fighting wars, while Wall Street and the Super Rich are amassing wealth in the hands of the top 1%, “in the big Chinese cities, living standards and per capita income are at the level of countries the World Bank would deem ‘high middle-income,’ with a clear, growing affinity for acquiring clothes, electronics, fast food, automobiles.”
Why? Because China’s leaders “made the judgment that increasing domestic consumption will be critical to China’s economy, and a host of domestic policies now aim to increase Chinese consumers’ appetite for acquisitions.
4. China’s massive investments in education, ahead of America
China’s making “enormous investments” in education, says Fogel. They know “educated workers are much more productive workers. … college-educated workers are three times as productive … a high school graduate is 1.8 times as productive as a worker with less than a ninth-grade education.”
In the next generation China’s high school enrollment rate could reach 100%, the college rate about 50%, adding “more than 6 percentage points to the country’s annual economic growth rate.” Meanwhile, America runs up massive debts wasting trillions on wars, shortchanging education.
5: China’s locking up global resources, using U.S. dollar reserves
The title of a Malcolm Knox feature in BusinessWeek says it all: “The deal is simple. Australia gets money. China gets Australia.” Wake up America: While our clueless myopic politicians are fighting self-destructive election turf wars, China is using its reserves (U.S. dollars!) to buy rights to Australia’s commodities and natural resources, giving China long-term access to natural gas, minerals, iron ore.
And that’s just one continent: China’s quietly buying up future rights to commodity-resources worldwide.
6. China’s rural economy of 700 million adding to growth rate
Go beyond the Shanghai high-rises and Guangdong factories,” says Fogel. You’ll see “changes afoot in the Chinese countryside … an under-appreciated economic engine.”
From 1978 to 2003 China’s labor productivity averaged about 6%. In the future, productivity will also increase in rural areas, for about 700 million or half of China. “That large rural sector is responsible for about a third of Chinese economic growth today” and will explode as a new generation adds another hundred million.
7. China’s government statistics underreporting progress
Don’t be misled by reports that “Chinese data are flawed or deliberately inflated in key ways,” says Fogel. Just the opposite: Their “statisticians may well be underestimating economic progress … Small firms often don’t report their numbers to the government.”
And as in America, “official estimates of GDP badly underestimate national growth” because they don’t “take into account improvements in services such as education and health care.” In short, “the rapid growth of China’s service sector makes the underestimation more pronounced.”
8: Yes, China does have a long-range plan to conquer America
China is America’s worst nightmare, engaged in economic warfare against us on multiple fronts: Stealing millions of jobs, stealing U.S. state secrets, stealing proprietary patents, stealing technology, stealing our wealth. China has also forged strategic alliances with our enemies, Iran, Venezuela and North Korea. China is engaged in a not-so-secret cyber-war against America.
Ross Terrill, a China expert at Harvard, wrote in the Wilson Quarterly: “The Chinese Communists are very aware of this contest with the United States, though Americans (beyond the Pentagon) are not.” Terrill warns: “By being a shrinking violet, the United States would simply hand over the future to China.”
9: China’s aware of Pentagon strategies, is one-upping generals
You know China’s generals have copies of the Pentagon’s strategic war manual. New York Times columnist Paul Krugman warns of China’s long-range plans beyond waging “economic warfare” and tying up long-term natural resources.
Krugman says China’s actions tell us they’re planning long-term military strategies as well as economic war. He warns that in the near future, some seemly inconsequential incident may provoke “dangerously trigger-happy” Chinese leaders into escalating from defensive military strategies to a preemptive strike to advance China’s economic power.
10. The “Goldman Conspiracy” is helping China sabotage America
Li Delin’s “The Goldman Sachs Conspiracy” was a best seller in China. His Chinese readers love his vivid description: “Goldman Sachs knows when to go for your neck” like a “Manchurian tiger.”
Actually China’s playing a clever game: As author Matt Taibbi might say, China is now a “vampire squid wrapped around the face of Goldman, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into Goldman’s capital, talent and connections.” Eventually China will suck the life out of Goldman.
11. By 2040 China will be the world’s biggest superpower (again)
“To the West, the notion of a world in which the center of global economic gravity lies in Asia may seem unimaginable,” says Fogel. “But it wouldn’t be the first time. … China was the world’s largest economy for 18 of the past 20 centuries. … While Europe was fumbling in the Dark Ages and fighting disastrous religious wars, China cultivated the highest standards of living in the world. Today, the notion of a rising China is, in Chinese eyes, merely a return to the status quo.”
And thanks to guys like Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan, Rick Perry, Barack Obama, the Goldman Conspiracy and buddies, China is destined to once again become the world’s superpower by 2040, when China’s economy is three times bigger than America’s.
中国肯定私下里支持里克•佩里(Rick Perry)这样的人当选下届美国总统。他们愿意和另一个德州州长所领导的美国展开竞争。这位州长总是夸夸其谈，热爱战争开支，支持茶党，认为美联储主席(Fed)主席的种种行为是“叛国”，觉得社会保障(Social Security)计划是个旁氏骗局(Ponzi scheme)，还承认自己反科学、反进化论、反知识分子，宁愿让美国回到19世纪那种“狂野西部”的状况。
没错，中国支持的这样一个家伙，他不仅会让华盛顿对所有美国人来说变得无足轻重，还会让美国对全世界来说变得微不足道，而中国却知道，自己的竞争优势和经济增长全部取决于对科研、创新和有远见的人才的投资。
你尽可以相信，中国领导人正在给一个会让美国经济进一步陷入停滞的总统加油，而中国则趁此时机在这场全球经济大战中冲到我们前头。中国很可能会接受共和党另一个主要提名人、那位价值观随着最新民意调查和茶党的质疑而转移的前州长……如保守派代表人物比尔•巴克利(Bill Buckley)那样的共和党灵魂人物都到哪去了？
中国的社会资本主义自2000年以来就击败了共和党的里根经济学
亚当•斯密(Adam Smith)1776年关于资本主义的大作让美国成了世界上最伟大的超级大国。我们已经失去了这个称号。美国目前在与中国的竞争中失了先机，并且即将输掉这场比赛。原因何在？
就在过去10年里，中国政府主导的社会资本杂交主义打败了美国经济，中国从一个穷国变成全球经济霸主地位竞赛的领先者。遗憾的是，美国政客并没有弄清楚这一点。他们就像争夺地盘的高中生，看不到自己的大楼正在烧毁。
里根的预算负责人斯托克曼(David Stockman)在他的著作《政治学对经济学的胜利》(Triumph of Politics Over Economics)中提醒道：美国站在一个十字路口，拼命要重新界定自己，此时即便是里根都不可能获得共和党提名。为什么呢？因为目光短浅的政客绑架了美国经济。政客成了新经济学家，如今政客们掌管着美国经济，他们是超级富豪的玩偶，也是有着特殊利益的说客。
斯托克曼把这种腐败的体制称为权贵资本主义，我们称之为里根经济学和末日资本主义，这是一种自我毁灭的意识形态，对中国有利。
在中国迈向世界经济霸主的过程中，中国领导人为什么会喜欢一个让美国变得无足轻重、其本身也并不重要的美国总统？以下是我的11条理由：
1.到2040年，中国的经济总量将达到123万亿美元，是美国的三倍
诺贝尔经济学奖得主、美国芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)的福格尔(Robert W. Fogel)去年在美国《外交政策》(Foreign Policy)杂志上发表了一篇名为《123万亿美元：为何中国经济规模2040年将增至123万亿美元》($123,000,000,000,000: Why China's economy will grow to $123 trillion by 2040)的封面文章，其中讲述了中国令人难以置信的跨越式经济发展。在2000年，也就是10年前，中国还是一个穷国，当时共和党与其“战争总统”执掌美国，宣称债务无关紧要。
没错，到2040年，中国经济规模将达到123万亿美元，是2000年全球经济总产出的近三倍，中国人均收入将达到8.5万美元，是欧盟(European Union)预期人均收入的两倍多……远远超过印度和日本……生活在中国百万人口以上的大城市的居民生活水平将是法国人的两倍……虽然届时人均财富规模尚未超过美国……但30年后，中国GDP占全球总量的比重将达到40%，远超美国的14%和欧盟的5%，而这只是短短一个世代的时间。
2.中国的政治制度比美国还资本主义
福格尔说，中国的政治制度可能并不是人们所想的那样；大多数经济改革，包括最成功的几次在内，都是地方政府推动并监督的。如今的高层决策存在更多的批评和争论。
福格尔经常出席中国留美经济学会（Chinese Economists Society）的会议。许多经济学家公开对中国政府持批评态度，甚至会指出财政部所作的最新决策是有缺陷的……甚至会在北京的一家报纸发表批评信。
3.中国正在迅速变成消费者主导的资本主义经济
福格尔说，没错，中国长期被压抑的消费主义趋势正在爆发；从许多方面来看，中国都是目前世界上最具资本主义特点的国家。
明白了吗？在我们从中国借钱然后把钱浪费在打战上的时候，在华尔街和巨富们把财富聚集在最富1%人群手中的时候，在中国的大城市，生活水平和人均收入正处于世界银行（World Bank）所认定的“中高收入”水平，人们也明显越来越热衷于购买服装、电子产品、快餐和汽车。
原因何在？因为中国领导人做出了扩大内需对中国经济至关重要的决策，并推出了一系列国内政策旨在提高中国消费者的购买胃口。
4.中国对教育的大规模投资超过美国
福格尔说，中国正在对教育进行“巨额投资”。他们知道受过教育的劳动者效率会大大提高，上过大学的劳动者效率会增加两倍，高中毕业生的效率是受九年级以下教育劳动者的1.8倍。
在未来三十年，中国的高中入学率可能会达到100%，大学入学率约50%，为中国年经济增长率贡献6个以上的百分点。与此同时，美国负债累累，把数万亿美元挥霍在战争上，克扣对教育方面的投入。
5.中国正在垄断全球资源，使用美元储备
诺克斯（Malcolm Knox）在《商业周刊》（BusinessWeek）的一篇特写文章的标题说明了一切：交易很简单，澳大利亚拿钱，中国得到澳大利亚。醒醒吧美国：我们目光短浅的糊涂政治家为自我毁灭的选举打地盘战时，中国正在用外汇储备（美元！）购买澳大利亚大宗商品和自然资源的所有权，让中国长期享有天然气、矿产和铁矿石。
而且这还只是一个大陆而已：中国正在悄悄购买全球各地大宗商品和自然资源的期权。
6.中国7亿人口的农村经济在为增长率做贡献
福格尔说，除了上海的高楼大厦和广东的工厂，你会看到中国农村正在发生巨大变化，这是被人低估的一个经济引擎。
从1978年到2003年，中国的劳动生产率约以平均每年6%的速度增长。未来农村地区的生产率还会增长，目前中国农村人口约为7亿，占中国总人口的一半。广大农村地区的经济约占现在中国经济增长的三分之一，并会随着下一代新增的100万人口而迅速发展。
7. 中国政府的统计数据低估了经济发展的程度
福格尔说，别被“中国统计数据有误或关键数据被故意夸大”等报道误导。情况正好相反：中国的“统计人员很可能低估了经济发展的程度... ...小企业往往不向政府报告经营数据”。
就像在美国，官方估计的国内生产总值（GDP）严重低估国家经济增长水平，因为官方数据没有将教育和医疗保健等服务的改善考虑在内。简言之，中国服务业的快速增长令这种低估更加明显。
8. 是的，中国确有征服美国的长期计划
中国是美国最恐怖的噩梦，它们在经济上的许多方面和我们开战：中国窃取了我们数百万的就业机会；窃取了美国的国家机密；窃取了专利所有权；窃取了技术；窃取了美国的财富；中国还同美国的敌人建立了战略联盟，其中包括伊朗、委内瑞拉和朝鲜；中国正在毫不掩饰地从事针对美国的网络战争。
哈佛大学中国问题专家特里尔（Ross Terrill）在《威尔逊季刊》（Wilson Quarterly）中写道，中国共产党人非常清楚这场同美国的较量，但美国人（不仅包括五角大楼内的人）却并不清楚。特里尔警告说，如果还是胆小怕羞，美国只会将未来交到中国手上。
9. 先人一步的中国军事将领清楚五角大楼的策略
你知道吗：中国的军事将领有五角大楼的战略战争手册的副本。《纽约时报》专栏作家保罗•克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）警告说，中国的长期计划可不仅仅是发动“经济战”和长期抢占自然资源。
克鲁格曼说，中国的举动告诉我们，他们正在计划长期军事战略和经济战。他警告说，在不久的将来，一些看似无关紧要的事件可能会促使“危险好战”的中国领导人将防御性国防政策升级为先发制人的打击，以促进中国的经济实力。
10. 《高盛阴谋》帮助中国破坏美国
李德林的《高盛阴谋》在中国曾是畅销书。他的中文读者喜欢他生动的描述：高盛像一头“东北虎”，“知道什么时候掐你的脖子”。
事实上，中国在玩一个更高明的游戏：就像美国作家马特•泰比（Matt Taibbi）可能说过的那样，中国现在就像一只缠住高盛面孔的吸血乌贼，正无情地吸取高盛的资本、人才和人脉，最终中国将榨光高盛的资源。
11. 到2040年中国将（再次）成为全球最有实力的超级大国
福格尔说，对于西方国家来说，亚洲成为全球经济重心的想法看来可能是不可思议的。但这并非中国首次成为全球最大经济体，在过去20个世纪中，中国在18个世纪里都是全球最大的经济体。当欧洲还在黑暗的中世纪里慢慢摸索并发动灾难性的宗教战争时，中国树立了当时全球最高的生活标准。如今，在中国人看来，一个正在崛起的中国的提法不过是回归现状罢了。
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