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任重道远：The US March CPI data will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 ET on April 10th.

rustalk(亚历山大)

As Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted in his April 3 speech, the disinflation process is bumpy. March CPI report is likely to illustrate that point.Economists expect U.S. CPI to rise from 3.2% to 3.4% in March, while core CPI falls to 3.7% from 3.8%. CPI energy continued to rise year-on-year, and Brent crude oil futures prices reached a high of $90 per barrel for the first time since October last year, rising 18% this year. In addition, prices of other raw materials such as copper, aluminum and cocoa are also rising sharply. Rising housing-related items, insurance and investment management fees will also lead to a rebound in super-core inflation data. It may be unlikely to see inflation fall to the Fed's target in the short term.

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Last Updated: 4-9
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枫下茶话 / 工商经济 /
tor
Toronto Area

目前6月减息的几率仍然低于50%吧，主要原因是加拿大央行不会先于美联储减息。有人说实行了碳税通胀又上来了，今年减息无望，当然，这种可能性也是存在的，不过，我很想知道过晚减息会造成什么后果。 -allpurpose(AP用户-扎心话,句句真); 4-8 (#16043111@0)

耶伦受不了，美国政府的预算都还利息了。 -rustalk(亚历山大); 4-8 (#16043142@0) +2
别想减息了，石油，工业金属等等又在大涨，新一轮通涨又在路上了。 -haploidus(今剩叹); 4-8 (#16043144@0) +7
本来是每年涨5%，就变成未来一年涨25%。 -xz730000(笑一笑，十年少); 4-8 (#16043149@0) +2

Elaborate please -allpurpose(AP用户-扎心话,句句真); 4-8 (#16043156@0) +1

房价每五年涨25%。 -xz730000(笑一笑，十年少); 4-8 (#16043312@0)

有人算过，在这轮通胀前，真实的通胀数据已经是2位数了。 -daynnight(@_@); 4-8 (#16043238@0) +1

6月减息我觉得基本无可能。 -jeffrey815(Smartiecat); 4-8 (#16043212@0) +4

华尔街应该出手了，给点颜色看看。 -rustalk(亚历山大); 4-8 (#16043228@0)

但股市一直没有出现暴跌，尚未看到减息征兆。 -allpurpose(AP用户-扎心话,句句真); 4-8 (#16043555@0)

你是怎么看的？老鲍鱼和Nick都重申今年降息3次的观点了，所以股市才没跌。 -czczcz(看得清); 4-8 (#16043910@0)

他们嘴上讲没有用的，减息需要至少一个触发，目前美国的情况是，就业市场火爆，通胀高居不下，连股市还在攀升趋势，这样的情况很难触发联储局减息。 -allpurpose(AP用户-扎心话,句句真); 4-8 (#16043938@0)

失业率上升了，上次会议不是改口说了要平衡通胀和失业率嘛，更关键的是还没浮出水面的雷快要爆了。 -czczcz(看得清); 4-9 (#16044063@0)

6月减息几率很小，今天一金融分析师说，加拿大从来没在美联储之前减过息，而加息经常早于美联储。美联储6月减息可能性几乎是零。下一个目标将是9月，确实，全年不减息可能性越来越大。但央行承受的风险也越来越大。 -allpurpose(AP用户-扎心话,句句真); 4-8 (#16043549@0)

是加是减主要看国际政治形势. 冲突不断，加息不止. -chicksoup(落汤计); 4-8 (#16043224@0) +2
实体经济撑不住，引发大量坏账，造成系统性风险。所以对央行来说，降息不降息，只是死法不同。我已经说了，要么被通胀烧死，要么被银根勒死。反正是死路一条。 -daynnight(@_@); 4-8 (#16043232@0) +1

既要，又要，肯定不行。中国的便宜车不让买，非要自己生产，能不通货膨胀吗？既要40万工资，又要2万块钱的汽车，属于自相矛盾。 -rustalk(亚历山大); 4-8 (#16043254@0) +4
加拿大死了你还有好吗？ -maplus(马+); 4-8 (#16043256@0)

CME FedWatch 预计6月降息的可能性是51% -maplus(马+); 4-8 (#16043268@0) +1

“今天一金融分析师说，加拿大从来没在美联储之前减过息，而加息经常早于美联储。美联储6月减息可能性几乎是零。” -allpurpose(AP用户-扎心话,句句真); 4-8 (#16043560@0) +1

加拿大的利率决议总是比美国早一些，6月份会早一星期，如果他们“预知”美国6月会减息，也许这次会比美联储提前，毕竟降息的紧迫性高于美国 -maplus(马+); 4-8 (#16043605@0) +2

美国6月份降息可能性好像不大。 -bay.chen(168); 4-8 (#16043619@0)
对，加拿大总是比美国早一周。提前一周应该比较明朗。我赌美国7月，加拿大7月又比美国早一周，万一行长判断错了，那就只能等9月补减。期待加国失业率再上一个台阶。 -allpurpose(AP用户-扎心话,句句真); 4-9 (#16043955@0)

不用期待，现在这个失业率已经够惨了，而且这些数据有滞后性，现在的所谓通胀是战争影响供应链造成的，央行把利息加到100也改变不了，加拿大经济早就进入衰退了。 -czczcz(看得清); 4-9 (#16044617@0)

任重道远：The US March CPI data will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 ET on April 10th. -rustalk(亚历山大); 4-9 {740} (#16044390@0)
As Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted in his April 3 speech, the disinflation process is bumpy. March CPI report is likely to illustrate that point.Economists expect U.S. CPI to rise from 3.2% to 3.4% in March, while core CPI falls to 3.7% from 3.8%. CPI energy continued to rise year-on-year, and Brent crude oil futures prices reached a high of $90 per barrel for the first time since October last year, rising 18% this year. In addition, prices of other raw materials such as copper, aluminum and cocoa are also rising sharply. Rising housing-related items, insurance and investment management fees will also lead to a rebound in super-core inflation data. It may be unlikely to see inflation fall to the Fed's target in the short term.

@Philadelphia

任重道远：The US March CPI data will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 ET on April 10th.

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